Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.228091 2.361826 2.503072 2.663993 2.843034 3.037034 3.264388
2025-04-13 1.990176 2.167010 2.362611 2.597081 2.873331 3.192147 3.593523
2025-04-20 1.882396 2.089740 2.327006 2.622625 2.987050 3.430102 4.023738
2025-04-27 1.813723 2.045361 2.317917 2.668768 3.118682 3.692039 4.506950
2025-05-04 1.757165 2.007834 2.309836 2.709758 3.240970 3.947989 5.011659
2025-05-11 1.682109 1.941049 2.258617 2.688398 3.275277 4.084318 5.361076
2025-05-18 1.618776 1.884107 2.214664 2.670825 3.309666 4.219800 5.724245
2025-05-25 1.561024 1.830481 2.170805 2.648605 3.333134 4.338352 6.074911
2025-06-01 1.508704 1.780826 2.128727 2.624799 3.350436 4.446607 6.422586
2025-06-08 1.471295 1.748448 2.107258 2.627236 3.404793 4.615945 6.905613
2025-06-15 1.445868 1.730321 2.103441 2.653483 3.495697 4.852501 7.560590
2025-06-22 1.399806 1.682663 2.056798 2.614448 3.481613 4.910318 7.870539
2025-06-29 1.356487 1.637744 2.012845 2.578102 3.470895 4.976014 8.219722
2025-07-06 1.307557 1.583611 1.953957 2.516486 3.415108 4.955998 8.377290
2025-07-13 1.289571 1.570907 1.952516 2.540833 3.501125 5.202717 9.212483
2025-07-20 1.278796 1.567482 1.963730 2.584585 3.622456 5.531324 10.359361
2025-07-27 1.267133 1.562215 1.971772 2.623422 3.738160 5.865535 11.658770
2025-08-03 1.239167 1.533053 1.943690 2.603187 3.747457 5.982485 12.371495
2025-08-10 1.213763 1.506713 1.918725 2.586535 3.761663 6.111414 13.178203
2025-08-17 1.188496 1.479812 1.891933 2.565474 3.765977 6.219088 13.964604
2025-08-24 1.164093 1.453463 1.865049 2.542903 3.765682 6.316328 14.764654
2025-08-31 1.147431 1.437757 1.853574 2.545215 3.812520 6.529190 16.141734
2025-09-07 1.137334 1.431198 1.855609 2.570098 3.904684 6.865439 18.302069